Overestimating Winning Streaks.
Bettors are overly impressed with teams with winning streaks. A team with on a 3-0 winning streak may very well have won those games against weak teams and may collapse against a high-quality opponent.
Football and basketball are based on point spreads, which are the dominant method of wagering. Baseball, however, works a little differently. In baseball, betting odds are based on a money line instead of a point spread. Money lines make you pick the winner of the game, but the payoffs are based on odds. In a money line, the sportsbook posts the odds you have to risk to win $100. Your bet must follow that ratio regardless of how much money you want to put at stake. For example let’s say a team is a 150 favorite. That means you have to risk $150 on that favorite to win $100, or $1,500 to win $1,000, or $75 to win $50. If you want to bet on the underdog to upset, you’ll risk $100 and your return will either be 10 or 20 less than the posted price depending on the store.
Bettors tend to overrate last year’s Super Bowl winner. With the exception of 1998, when Denver bucked the trend, the previous year’s Super Bowl winners have a hard time covering the spread, especially in the opening weeks. After their Super Bowl win in 1996, the Packers had a 5-2 record after 7 weeks but were 0-7 against the spread. After the first 4 games in 1999, Denver had been favored in 3 of its 4 games but had yet to cover the spread.
Spot Hot Winners.
Watch for hot jockeys or trainers that are doing particularly well. A hot jockey sometimes will get the choice of top mounts, and a rider usually will go with the horse most likely to win. Check the standings in the official program to keep track of such developments.
Bet with certainty.
Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks, while only $100 on ones that they’re not so sure about. This is an instance of poor sports gambling. If you are uncertain about a game, it is advisable to not bet on it at all.
Sports Book Betting Line.
The best lines makers are those who have a feel for what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public’s perception of the strength of the two teams. It does not necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. And the betting public’s perception is often wrong. For example, they tend to overrate high profile teams and underrate the others. Once you understand that concept, everything else will begin to fall into place. You will have an edge over most bettors.
Never play a parlay of more than 3 teams.
Not only are the odds of your winning too great but the payout is not commensurate with the odds against your winning. The possibilities of a parlay are 2 to the nth power, with n representing the number of teams in the parlay.
Place Online Bets with Past Winners.
Give preference to winners. Choose a horse that has won before.
Football Betting Tip
When betting on NFL games, always try to get the final difference of 3 points on your side. Roughly 10% of all NFL games finish with the favorite winning by 3. The difference between 2.5 & 3 (or 3.5 & 3) may not look much, but it is massive.
Look for Trends.
If you spot a trend, factor it into your betting decisions. For instance, some teams always beat certain other teams. This is a trend that should inform your betting choices.
The horses to look out for in Lightweights are those whose overall form shows that they are capable of winning, regardless of the class of race in which they compete. But bettingsiteskenya.co.ke can can tell you more about betting world.